Market Thoughts by Marc

Keep Up with the Markets

May 1, 2017

May corn 369 ¼ + 11 ¼      May soybeans 959 + 13 ¾            May Mpls wheat 549 ¾ + 9               
July corn 377 + 11                July Soybeans 970 ¼ + 14             July Mpls wheat 562¾ + 8       
Dec 17 corn 394 ½ +9 ½     Nov17 Soybeans 964 ½ + 11 ¼     Sept 17 Mpls wheat 567 ½ +6 ½ 
July Chicago wheat up 23 ¾    July KC Wheat up 28 ½ 

Last week farmers in much of the upper Midwest were watching the market trade lower as they watched the rain fall on already wet fields. Today as snow was falling in many parts of the western corn belt, the market finally seemed to acknowledge that corn planting was being delayed.

Some of these snow storms covered the Hard Wheat Belt in Kansas and Nebraska, so all the wheat markets enjoyed a rally, with KC leading the way.

However……..

Today’s USDA Crop Progress estimates 

US corn planting 34% complete vs 31% expected (28-35% range of ideas), 17% last week, 43% last year, 34% average.

US soybean planting 10% complete vs 12% expected (9-15% range of ideas), 6% last week, 7% last year, 7% average.

US spring wheat planting 31% complete vs 33% expected (32-35% range of ideas), 22% last week, 52% last year, 46% average. 

US winter wheat crop conditions 54% good/excellent vs 53% expected (52-55% range of ideas), 54% last week, 61% last year

This just shows that the Eastern corn belt is well ahead of average and making up for delays in the western corn belt.

Also, the Winter wheat ratings are expected to drop next week after the HEAVY snows this weekend. Hummm- snow is bad for winter wheat?

USDA weekly Inspections for corn and soybeans were within the ranges of analyst’s estimates above needed levels to reach USDA projections. More importantly wheat inspections were above the needed level to reach USDA projections. The estimate for corn used for ethanol has analysts thinking the USDA yearly usage projection may be too small by 25-50 mil-bu.

The big unknown is if the funds started to buy back some of the 40,000 Ag futures contracts they sold last week. Hummm – we will not know until Friday.