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September 2017 WASDE Highlights:

Several numbers below…save yourself the headache, none of them are Bullish corn or soybeans, as evidenced by today’s price action. U.S. yield, production, and ending stocks figures, again for both commodities, came in higher than the average trade guesses, and were higher than or equal to a month ago.

 

Where to from here? The 5-year seasonal shifts negative for both corn and soybeans now through October 3rd/4th. In corn…December futures did attempt to challenge the current contract low of $3.44 ¼ today, however got no closer than $3.45 ½. CZ17 also managed to close back over $3.50, closing 6-cents off the day low. That’s good…I guess. Technically though this is when the slow harvest bleed on prices starts to take effect barring a massive frost or some other outlier that I can’t see at the moment. November soybeans got hit harder than corn after the numbers came out; however they too bounced off their day low of $9.37 ½, closing back over the 20-day moving average at $9.50 ½. Although this too feels like a very empty victory for unsold producers moving forward.

 

Were there any positives? No…not in corn. No self-help book can spin the corn numbers. In soybeans the desperate Bull will invariably point to the minor decrease in World soybean stocks (still a record high), Arg/Bra production forecasted at 164 MMT versus 171.8 MMT in 2016/17, and Chinese soybean imports increasing to 95 MMT versus 94 MMT last month and 92 MMT in 2016/17…HOWEVER all of those adjustments mean nothing at the moment.

 

It’s really up to the Money Managers now…how low do they want to push it. Last year CZ drifted down to $3.25 on 9/30/2016. SX traded down to $9.34 on 9/27/2016. Based on those prices you’d have to say soybeans stand a better chance of hanging in here versus corn with SX17 already trading down to $9.37 ½ today. Time will tell…tomorrow’s close is important.

 

SEPTEMBER 2017 WASDE HIGHLIGHTS (LOWLIGHTS):

 

U.S. Production 2017/18

SEP-USDA

Average Trade Estimate

Trade Range

AUG-USDA

Corn Production

14.184

14.003

13.754 - 14.295

14.153

Corn Yield

169.9

167.9

165.5 - 171.2

169.5

Soybean Production

4.431

4.322

4.179 - 4.435

4.381

Soybean Yield

49.9

48.7

47.1 - 50.0

49.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S Grain Stocks 2016/17

SEP-USDA

Average Trade Estimate

Trade Range

AUG-USDA

Corn

2.350

2.352

2.270 - 2.415

2.37

Soybeans

0.345

0.361

0.310 - 0.390

0.37

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S Grain Stocks 2017/18

SEP-USDA

Average Trade Estimate

Trade Range

AUG-USDA

Corn

2.335

2.215

1.898 - 2.447

2.273

Soybeans

0.475

0.439

0.325 - 0.475

0.475

Wheat

0.933

0.914

0.866 - 0.943

0.933

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

World Stocks 2016/17

SEP-USDA

Average Trade Estimate

Trade Range

AUG-USDA

Corn

226.96

227.9

225.1 - 229.1

228.6

Soybeans

95.96

96.7

95.5 - 97.3

97.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

World Stocks 2017/18

SEP-USDA

Average Trade Estimate

Trade Range

AUG-USDA

Corn

202.47

197.8

189.4 - 203.0

200.9

Soybeans

97.53

97.2

95.0 - 100.0

97.8

Wheat

263.14

264.3

258.0 - 268.0

264.7

 

 

  U.S. CORN

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2017/18

 

 

 

AUGUST

SEPTEMBER

  Planted Acres

88.0

94.0

90.9

90.9

  Harvested Acres

80.8

86.7

83.5

83.5

  Yield

168.4

174.6

169.5

169.9

  Carryin

1,731

1,737

2,370

2,350

  Production

13,602

15,148

14,153

14,184

  Imports

68

55

50

50

    Total Supply

15,401

16,940

16,573

16,585

  Feed & Residual

5,114

5,425

5,450

5,475

  Food, Seed & Ind.

6,648

6,870

7,000

6,925

    Ethanol

5,224

5,435

5,500

5,475

  Exports

1,901

2,295

1,850

1,850

    Total Use

13,664

14,590

14,300

14,250

  Ending Stocks

1,737

2,350

2,273

2,335

  Stocks/Use

12.7%

16.1%

15.9%

16.4%

Farm Price ($/bu.)

$3.61

$3.35

$2.90 - $3.70

$2.80 - $3.60

 

  U.S. SOYBEANS

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2017/18

 

 

 

AUGUST

SEPTEMBER

  Planted Acres

82.7

83.4

89.5

89.5

  Harvested Acres

81.7

82.7

88.6

88.7

  Yield

48.0

52.1

49.4

49.9

  Carryin

191

197

370

345

  Production

3,926

4,307

4,381

4,431

  Imports

24

25

25

25

    Total Supply

4,140

4,528

4,777

4,801

  Crushings

1,886

1,895

1,940

1,940

  Exports

1,942

2,170

2,225

2,250

  Seed

97

104

101

101

  Residual

18

14

35

35

    Total Use

3,944

4,183

4,301

4,326

  Ending Stocks

197

345

475

475

  Stocks/Use

5.0%

8.2%

11.0%

11.0%

Farm Price ($/bu.)

$8.95

$9.50

$8.45 - $10.15

$8.35 - $10.05

 

STATE CORN YIELD

USDA-SEP

USDA-AUG

2016

SEP +/- 2016

Iowa

187

188

203

-16

Illinois

189

188

197

-8

Nebraska

181

183

178

3

Minnesota

182

183

193

-11

Indiana

171

173

173

-2

S Dakota

145

140

161

-16

Ohio

173

171

159

14

Missouri

164

162

163

1

Wisconsin

162

162

178

-16

Kansas

133

133

142

-9

N Dakota

124

121

158

-34

Michigan

169

170

157

12

U.S.

169.9

169.5

174.6

-4.7

Total Production

14.184

14.153

15.148

-0.964

Ending Stocks

2.335

2.273

2.350

-0.015

 

  STATE SOYBEAN YIELD

USDA-SEP

USDA-AUG

2016

SEP +/- 2016

  Illinois

58.0

58.0

59.0

-1

  Indiana

56.0

55.0

57.5

-1.5

  Iowa

57.0

56.0

60.5

-3.5

  Kansas

43.0

41.0

48.0

-5

  Minnesota

47.0

49.0

52.5

-5.5

  Missouri

49.0

49.0

49.0

0

  Nebraska

56.0

58.0

61.0

-5

  N Dakota

35.0

33.0

41.5

-6.5

  Ohio

54.0

53.0

54.5

-0.5

  S Dakota

45.0

41.0

49.5

-4.5

  U.S.

49.9

49.4

52.1

-2.2

  Total Production

4.431

4.381

4.307

0.124

  Ending Stocks

0.475

0.475

0.345

0.130