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SHORT-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: July corn futures got caught in the massive sell-off in soybeans due to China issuing a 25% tariff on U.S. corn and soybeans Friday. This resulted in July corn scoring a new contract low on Friday of $3.55 ¼. I believe we’ll start to see corn stabilize this week…needs to $3.55 ¼ Monday a.m.
SHORT-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: July corn futures fell apart this week, scoring two consecutive closes below the 50-day moving average on Thursday and Friday. CN18 will need to hold the 100-day moving average early next week at $3.887 to avoid a deeper, downward correction phase.
SHORT-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: July corn futures continue to push higher. The next leg higher however should prove the most difficult. Next week the market will get its first Good-to-Excellent rating in corn which is expected to be approximately 70%. I’m not sure the fundamentals support higher highs at this time…
SHORT-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: July corn futures came roaring back on Friday, fueled by the China “sorghum” headlines. That said strong topside resistance sits from $4.07-$4.08 ¼, with $4.08 ¼ representing the current 2018 calendar year day high from May 3rd. I expect the top end of that range to hold short-term…
SHORT-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: July corn futures closed down 9 ¾-cents per bushel this week, finishing at $3.96 ½. Key price support next week begins at the 50-day moving average of $3.94 ½. I’m not surprised to see corn setback momentarily; however I do expect this downward correction to hold (100-day MA = $3.84 ¼).
SHORT-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: July corn futures closed up 13-cents per bushel week-on-week, finishing at $3.98 ½ on Friday. It was a good week for Corn Bulls however the real test is next week.
SHORT-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: May corn futures closed down 9 ¾-cents per bushel week-on-week. However most of the damage was done on Friday when May corn closed down 5 ½-cents, finishing at $3.76 ½. That said as long as the 100-day moving average holds at $3.713; upward price momentum will have been sustained…
SHORT-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: As of Thursday’s close May corn futures have largely moved sideways this week. That said price momentum from a chart perspective remains higher in corn; however I am seeing some hesitation from Money Managers from adding new longs above $3.92 ½. If the weather starts to normalize in the weeks ahead I wouldn’t be surprised to see corn setback or remain range bound momentarily…
SHORT-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: May corn futures thru Thursday’s close have recovered from Wednesday’s China related sell-off. The uptrend in corn continues. I still believe corn futures can work higher buoyed by the March Prospective Plantings forecast and a delayed planting start. I expect a retest of the 3/13 high at $3.95 ¼.
SHORT-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: May corn futures managed a key higher close on Friday afternoon, finishing up 1 ¼-cents per bushel at $3.77 ¼. This occurred despite CK18 trading down to a day low of $3.69 ¼ early in the session (lowest level since 2/6/18). As long as the 100-day holds at $3.68, CK has a chance to rally…
SHORT-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: Corn needs to find buyers early Monday morning to avoid a downward correction. Soybean futures should have a lot to say about that. If May soybeans continue to sell-off (as they did on Friday) it should make it difficult for corn to stay neutral or impartial to the price action in the soy complex.
SHORT-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: The Relative Strength Index in May corn futures pushed past 73.0 on Friday afternoon indicating “overbought” market conditions. The current U.S. corn carryout doesn’t support CK trading above $3.90 at this time. Additional rallies will need to be initiated by Money Managers continuing to buy corn.
SHORT-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: March corn futures closed slightly lower week-on-week; however CH8 did achieve a new 2018 day high on Tuesday of $3.70. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Money Managers now net LONG +18,674 corn contracts. That said I still see strong topside resistance at the 200-day moving average of $3.733. I wouldn’t buy corn or chase ownership if I was an end user above $3.70…
SHORT-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: March corn futures managed to close down just a ¼-cent on Friday securing a higher weekly close (closed at $3.61 ½). March corn remains in a position to continue the current up-move next week. The next topside price target would be $3.69 ¼ (the day high on 10/25/17).
SHORT-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: March corn futures tried to rally this week; however once again traders showed a clear reluctance in chasing longs on even 5 to 6-cent upward price moves. I expect this narrow trading range ($3.45 - $3.60) to continue through the first week of February. The 5-year price seasonal supports higher prices thereafter. Once again Corn Bulls need the primary market focus to shift to a lower U.S. corn planted acreage base in 2018…
SHORT-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: March corn futures made a new contract low on 1/12/18 at $3.45 ½ and have since managed to bounce 6 to 8-cents higher. Topside price resistance should come in the form of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $3.54 ¾ followed by the 100-day moving average at $3.582. I have a sideways to slightly higher price bias moving forward into LH January and FH February. (See March Corn Futures Chart on Page 3)
SHORT-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: March corn futures continue to trade in a very narrow range, with the 50-day moving average providing strong overhead price resistance at $3.544. Money Managers remain short -198,576 contracts as of the closes on 1/2/18. I expect this “sideways” trading pattern to continue next week.