Articles > September 2017 WASDE Highlights:

September 2017 WASDE Highlights:

9/13/2017

Several numbers below…save yourself the headache, none of them are Bullish corn or soybeans, as evidenced by today’s price action. U.S. yield, production, and ending stocks figures, again for both commodities, came in higher than the average trade guesses, and were higher than or equal to a month ago.

 

Where to from here? The 5-year seasonal shifts negative for both corn and soybeans now through October 3rd/4th. In corn…December futures did attempt to challenge the current contract low of $3.44 ¼ today, however got no closer than $3.45 ½. CZ17 also managed to close back over $3.50, closing 6-cents off the day low. That’s good…I guess. Technically though this is when the slow harvest bleed on prices starts to take effect barring a massive frost or some other outlier that I can’t see at the moment. November soybeans got hit harder than corn after the numbers came out; however they too bounced off their day low of $9.37 ½, closing back over the 20-day moving average at $9.50 ½. Although this too feels like a very empty victory for unsold producers moving forward.

 

Were there any positives? No…not in corn. No self-help book can spin the corn numbers. In soybeans the desperate Bull will invariably point to the minor decrease in World soybean stocks (still a record high), Arg/Bra production forecasted at 164 MMT versus 171.8 MMT in 2016/17, and Chinese soybean imports increasing to 95 MMT versus 94 MMT last month and 92 MMT in 2016/17…HOWEVER all of those adjustments mean nothing at the moment.

 

It’s really up to the Money Managers now…how low do they want to push it. Last year CZ drifted down to $3.25 on 9/30/2016. SX traded down to $9.34 on 9/27/2016. Based on those prices you’d have to say soybeans stand a better chance of hanging in here versus corn with SX17 already trading down to $9.37 ½ today. Time will tell…tomorrow’s close is important.

 

SEPTEMBER 2017 WASDE HIGHLIGHTS (LOWLIGHTS):

 

U.S. Production 2017/18

SEP-USDA

Average Trade Estimate

Trade Range

AUG-USDA

Corn Production

14.184

14.003

13.754 - 14.295

14.153

Corn Yield

169.9

167.9

165.5 - 171.2

169.5

Soybean Production

4.431

4.322

4.179 - 4.435

4.381

Soybean Yield

49.9

48.7

47.1 - 50.0

49.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S Grain Stocks 2016/17

SEP-USDA

Average Trade Estimate

Trade Range

AUG-USDA

Corn

2.350

2.352

2.270 - 2.415

2.37

Soybeans

0.345

0.361

0.310 - 0.390

0.37

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S Grain Stocks 2017/18

SEP-USDA

Average Trade Estimate

Trade Range

AUG-USDA

Corn

2.335

2.215

1.898 - 2.447

2.273

Soybeans

0.475

0.439

0.325 - 0.475

0.475

Wheat

0.933

0.914

0.866 - 0.943

0.933

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

World Stocks 2016/17

SEP-USDA

Average Trade Estimate

Trade Range

AUG-USDA

Corn

226.96

227.9

225.1 - 229.1

228.6

Soybeans

95.96

96.7

95.5 - 97.3

97.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

World Stocks 2017/18

SEP-USDA

Average Trade Estimate

Trade Range

AUG-USDA

Corn

202.47

197.8

189.4 - 203.0

200.9

Soybeans



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